#ThrowbackThursday: Republican Vs. Democrat Hopefuls – Who’s Winning?

Hot on the heels of the US-Iran nuclear deal, the eyes are now on who is going to be occupying the White House once the Obama presidency ends. The race for winning the nomination amongst Democrats and Republicans promises to be full of surprises if one takes a look at the candidates that each party is fielding. Pollsters and surveys are at it again – who is winning over the public from both the camps and what target demographics are proving to be the key?

Today’s post is going to take a look at the theme of individuals in the US political hemisphere and how their popularity graph stacks up over history. Data such as this makes for an insightful reading for how future political campaigns should be run. And if anything, they do show how famous and infamous impact their party’s upward or downward graph as time goes by and the pressing political issues play out in the open. All data has been compiled and tabulated by Pew Research Center.

History in Perspective – Bill Clinton vs. George W Bush

Bill Clinton was one of the most popular US presidents due to his deft economic policies that benefited America. It was until the Lewinsky scandal broke out that he suffered a hit in public approval ratings. And then we have his successor George W Bush, ushering America in a new wave of wars following the 9/11 attacks in New York.

It seems people still remember the Clinton favorably in contrast to the wartime presidency overseen by Bush.

Joe Biden – The Current VP

Biden, for the most part, has been content to let his boss hog the limelight. He has made his fair share of effort staying under the public spotlight. His approval ratings have waned in public as well as in Democrat circles as well, owing to his diminished role in the Vice President role.

Compared to the invisible (but deeply influential) Dick Cheney, Joe Biden’s mark on US politics is muted.

Hilary Clinton – The Democrats’ best bet?

Hillary Clinton, if one goes by on paper, has the most experience in governance and policy matters, largely thanks to her stint as Secretary of State during the Obama years. The Republican camp naturally has low approval ratings for her based on their political leanings. But what’s surprising is that her ratings have dipped across Democrat and public circles as well.

Is it due to her impact on American foreign policy (Arab Spring, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, etc)? Or is it symptomatic of a larger trend that the American electorate isn’t ready for a female President yet? Both observations have seemed to contribute to the dip in opinion polls for Hillary towards bipartisan lines.

Jeb Bush vs. Rest of the Republican Hopefuls

If one goes by the data tabulated by pollsters and surveys, it’s not Jeb Bush (someone who is widely believed to be the strongest GOP contender yet), but all the other GOP candidates that are enjoying a surge in popularity.

Surveys also take into account both the conservative as well as the liberal Republican voter, pointing to more favorable ratings than unfavorable ratings for Huckabee, Rubio, Paul, Walker and Cruz aside from Jeb. In fact, it shows that despite Jeb enjoying more time in the media, the other candidates are still doing better with the public.

The Voters – How do they think their favorite candidates will do?

This type of survey is instrumental in understanding the direction of American politics over the years and whether the electorate is swaying towards the Democrats, Republicans or Independents. It also gives pollsters an insight into which issues are nearer to the voters and whether the politicians have a pulse on the public consciousness?

Coming from the hugely divisive years of the recent Obama presidency and a Republican-dominated Congress and House of Representatives, the trend of political polarization is expected to remain unchanged in between 2012 and 2016.

Graphs and Charts Credits: Pew Research Center